Insights
Short form research and selective intelligence notes from Orphius
Research Note
How Market Narratives Form and Break
Why single-day headlines rarely move markets, and how expectations form through repetition, reframing, and second-order implications.
Research Note
The Political Economy of Trade Protection
Why trade protection persists despite its economic costs, and what that reveals about how political incentives shape market policy.
Research Note
Recurring Patterns in Fed Policy Cycles
The structural parallels between the 2025-2026 and 2018-2019 rate environments, and what the prior cycle suggests about what comes next.