Short form research and selective intelligence notes from Orphius
Research Note
A research note on why single day recaps fail. Markets price changes in expectations, not headlines, and those shifts reveal themselves over weeks through repetition, reframing, and second order implications.
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Research Note
The 2025-2026 rate environment shares structural similarities with 2018-2019. This note traces the parallels, identifies where the current cycle diverges, and examines what the prior episode suggests about sequencing from pause to pivot to easing.
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Research Note
When a major AI policy announcement drops, the headline is the least interesting part. What follows is a multi-week cycle of reinterpretation, repositioning, and capital reallocation that reshapes which startups get funded and how they pitch.
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